Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 4.241793 5.026862 5.897410 6.931597 8.123805 9.452101 11.041002
2025-06-01 2.924473 3.936188 5.185565 6.829115 8.919907 11.475137 14.816624
2025-06-08 2.129656 3.202584 4.655822 6.738220 9.609883 13.389496 18.690688
2025-06-15 1.742707 2.880003 4.544704 7.104144 10.871351 16.130096 23.920756
2025-06-22 1.392046 2.510560 4.268245 7.147418 11.636929 18.233934 28.478821
2025-06-29 1.126670 2.204050 4.011385 7.146818 12.294387 20.208293 33.013682
2025-07-06 0.921052 1.945938 3.773668 7.117100 12.869967 22.082173 37.544646
2025-07-13 0.848462 1.911112 3.904160 7.710769 14.512768 25.764300 45.204560
2025-07-20 0.743849 1.788660 3.850779 7.963085 15.591495 28.618628 51.771082
2025-07-27 0.662930 1.695599 3.833405 8.270567 16.788953 31.763711 59.064876
2025-08-03 0.566547 1.545547 3.674853 8.279065 17.431227 33.996274 64.976504
2025-08-10 0.462455 1.351384 3.388367 7.985553 17.459061 35.127085 69.040768
2025-08-17 0.367567 1.157307 3.071302 7.591712 17.266553 35.882160 72.589753
2025-08-24 0.308360 1.040364 2.907933 7.504141 17.681318 37.815278 78.473597
2025-08-31 0.259012 0.936376 2.754633 7.413585 18.075501 39.740383 84.498717
2025-09-07 0.240035 0.917162 2.809609 7.814891 19.567840 43.950080 95.215295
2025-09-14 0.208635 0.849404 2.724210 7.863090 20.281662 46.645120 103.163412
2025-09-21 0.180128 0.782027 2.625958 7.862829 20.882142 49.151953 110.916311
2025-09-28 0.154866 0.717450 2.522031 7.830619 21.401319 51.525682 118.565881
2025-10-05 0.152052 0.735684 2.665782 8.476669 23.604908 57.672546 134.399775
2025-10-12 0.139155 0.710629 2.672995 8.751102 24.930655 62.006103 146.722547
2025-10-19 0.128889 0.692990 2.700252 9.085412 26.438786 66.853257 160.443185
2025-10-26 0.112819 0.644751 2.618364 9.094652 27.123965 69.903815 170.505438